Climate Change and Risk Analysis

Graphics tweeted by the International Federation of Red Cross / Red Crescent (IFRC) during the recent Climate Adaptation Summit (CAS 2021) summarize potential physical consequences of climate change and their social impacts.

Climate Change and Risk Analysis

Over the last 40 years, a wide scientific consensus predicted a global, annual average, temperature increase due to human emissions of carbon dioxide plus the feedback of the amount of water vapor that the atmosphere can contain as the atmospheric temperatures increased. The primary focus of scientific policy recommendations was mitigation of such global warming by shifting to carbon neutral energy production  Nonetheless, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has continued to increase from a preindustrial value of 285 ppm (parts per million) to a concentration in 2000 of 370 ppm to about 418 ppm today, high than any prior time in human history.. This increase is sufficient that we can no longer focus only on global emissions reduction but must reckon with local adaptations to already existing economic and social system risks, where a risk is considered to be an undesirable event stemming from a changing climate.

This initiates a project, often at the level of cities and counties, of identifying potential risks, estimating various levels of likelihood, tying those levels to consequences for human lives, social systems, and economics, and then pursuing means of adapting to reduce the risks. 

Presentation by Dr. Keith Grant

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